Developing countries in Asia have had an impressive poverty reduction scorecard. Over the past three decades, the region saw the number of people living in extreme poverty drop from about 1.5 billion in 1990 to 263 million in 2015. The percentage of people living in extreme poverty in these areas fell from 54.5% to just 6.9% during a 25-year period.

The 2020 Asian Development Outlook Update estimates that the gross domestic product of developing countries in the region will contract by roughly 0.7% in 2020, marking the first recession in the region in nearly six decades, with an economic recovery expected the following year at 6.8% GDP growth.

Our research indicates that without the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of poor in developing countries in Asia would have continued to decline. However, the global health crisis that we are confronting now is threatening to reverse this trend as it ravages economies all over the world.

Under a baseline scenario of a 2020 without COVID-19, the region would have seen a steady reduction in poverty rates and number of poor, in line with the experience over the past two decades. For example, there would be an estimated 114 million living in extreme poverty (under $1.90 per day) and 734 million living below $3.20 a day. These figures increased by 78 million and 162 million, respectively, due to COVID-19.