Asia and the Pacific now faces a different kind of shock to food security as conflict in the Middle East drives up fuel and fertilizer costs rather than cutting global grain supplies.

The latest Middle East crisis is reshaping global food security, but mainly through different channels than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. While this directly disrupted grain and fertilizer exports, today’s shock is driven primarily by shipping disruptions, and higher energy and fertilizer prices.

Instead of an immediate spike in food prices, this is a broad, system-wide shock rippling through interconnected markets and squeezing the food system. For Asia and the Pacific, heavily reliant on imported energy and fertilizers, the implications are significant.